Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate Wellington’s daily maximum on August 12 will likely fall in the 13–15 °C range, aligning with the city’s August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C. The near-even split between 14 °C and 15 °C market prices reflects modest uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching cold front and variable westerly winds typical of the Cook Strait region. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures through the period, while day-to-day model runs show limited spread in maximum temperature guidance. Updated high-resolution forecasts and any revisions to surface pressure or wind fields over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts likely to shift trader consensus before resolution.