Forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and climatological data indicate Moscow’s August 12 maximum will likely fall in the 17–20 °C range under partly cloudy skies, light northwest flow, and modest humidity, reflecting a post-heatwave cooling trend after earlier August peaks exceeded 25 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread clustered near the long-term mid-August mean of roughly 19–22 °C, with afternoon peaks sensitive to cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any brief radiative heating. The closely matched market-implied probabilities for 16–18 °C capture this genuine forecast uncertainty, where small shifts in steering patterns or model runs could tip the daily high by 1–2 °C. Traders are monitoring updated short-range guidance ahead of resolution.