**Mitch McConnell’s prolonged health-related absence and announced retirement drive the strong trader consensus against him casting a Senate vote by September 30, 2026.** The Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term ending in January 2027 would be his last, has not voted since June 11, 2026. A fall and pneumonia diagnosis led to hospitalization and nearly eight weeks in rehabilitation; he was discharged on August 6 to continue recovery at home during the Senate’s August recess. With the chamber set to reconvene in September, no public statements or scheduling indicate an imminent return to the floor. At age 84, McConnell’s recent medical history and decision to retire align with patterns where senators in similar circumstances limit or end active participation before term expiration. The implied 81.5% probability on “No” reflects traders’ assessment of these verified developments and the short timeline remaining.