Nigel Farage’s resignation in July 2026 triggered the Clacton by-election held on 13 August, which he won with 63.3% of the vote and immediately resumed his seat as Reform UK MP. With the constituency now represented by an active incumbent who has shown no further intention to vacate and with the ongoing parliamentary investigation into his finances producing no new procedural trigger for another vacancy, traders assign a 71% probability against a second by-election before the end of 2026. No scheduled elections, party leadership changes, or health-related developments point to an imminent seat vacancy in the remaining months of the year.