Representative Chris Pappas maintains a commanding lead in the September 8, 2026, New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary because of his incumbency in the U.S. House, proven fundraising edge exceeding $9 million, and consistent polling margins of 40 points or more since late 2025. Traders see his moderate record and statewide name recognition as decisive advantages over challenger Karishma Manzur, whose campaign centers on restricting AIPAC and corporate PAC contributions plus sharper criticism of U.S. policy toward Israel. Manzur’s limited resources and unsuccessful attempts to advance her platform at the state party convention have not narrowed the gap. Late-breaking events such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected surge in progressive turnout could still alter the outcome before primary day.