Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 from Republican control in 2024, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Polymarket on the party winner for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district, covering suburban Nassau County on Long Island, features a Democratic primary that was canceled in June 2026, allowing Gillen to advance automatically. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll faces structural challenges in a seat rated Lean Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling shifts or major campaign events altering the balance since the primaries. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in competitive suburban contests.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
15%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,549 वॉल्यूम
87%
Republican Party
$402 वॉल्यूम
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 from Republican control in 2024, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Polymarket on the party winner for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district, covering suburban Nassau County on Long Island, features a Democratic primary that was canceled in June 2026, allowing Gillen to advance automatically. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll faces structural challenges in a seat rated Lean Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling shifts or major campaign events altering the balance since the primaries. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in competitive suburban contests.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,950समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 from Republican control in 2024, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Polymarket on the party winner for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district, covering suburban Nassau County on Long Island, features a Democratic primary that was canceled in June 2026, allowing Gillen to advance automatically. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll faces structural challenges in a seat rated Lean Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling shifts or major campaign events altering the balance since the primaries. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in competitive suburban contests.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$1,950समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen, who flipped NY-04 from Republican control in 2024, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Polymarket on the party winner for the November 3, 2026 general election. The district, covering suburban Nassau County on Long Island, features a Democratic primary that was canceled in June 2026, allowing Gillen to advance automatically. Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll faces structural challenges in a seat rated Lean Democratic by multiple forecasters, with limited recent polling shifts or major campaign events altering the balance since the primaries. Trader consensus reflects the incumbent's established name recognition, fundraising edge, and the district's recent voting patterns favoring Democrats in competitive suburban contests.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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