Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
72%
Republican Party
25%
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$84 वॉल्यूम
72%
Republican Party
$148 वॉल्यूम
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$232समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$232समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a structural edge in New York’s 4th congressional district, a seat she captured in 2024 by a narrow margin in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74.5% implied probability of retaining the seat in the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting her incumbency advantage and the party’s typical midterm performance in similar terrain. The expected Republican challenger, former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, faces the task of overcoming a modest partisan lean without the benefit of an open seat. The June 23 primary will finalize nominees, but no late-breaking developments have shifted the balance significantly since filing deadlines closed in April. Market pricing aligns with nonpartisan ratings that classify the race as Lean Democratic.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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