Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds the strongest position in the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, backed by consistent polling leads of 38–43% in recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys. He maintains a double-digit advantage over Douglas Ruas (PL), who has risen to 19–25%, and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) near 10%, with all other listed candidates polling at 2% or below. Paes’s campaign has emphasized a proposed unified public security system and territorial control measures, drawing on his record as former Rio mayor. The fragmented opposition and Paes’s steady support among key voter groups underpin the wide gap in implied probabilities reflected by trader consensus. A possible second round on October 25 remains a factor if no candidate reaches 50% initially.