Recent polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dominating the top two spots, leaving a tight contest among lower-polling candidates for third place. Renan Santos (Missão) has maintained a narrow lead in most surveys over Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with support concentrated among younger voters and those seeking an alternative to polarized establishment options. Santos’s final-week campaign events and consistent single-digit showing in Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel releases have reinforced trader expectations that he will finish ahead of the other minor candidates. Caiado and Cury trail in the same data, with no late surge evident before polls close. The market’s pricing aligns with these vote-intention trends and the absence of major last-minute shifts among the field.