Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.6%
किम कठागुरी 4.1%
Erika Hilton 2.5%
$22,105 वॉल्यूम
$22,105 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
किम कठागुरी
4%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 11.6%
किम कठागुरी 4.1%
Erika Hilton 2.5%
$22,105 वॉल्यूम
$22,105 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,122 वॉल्यूम
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 वॉल्यूम
12%
किम कठागुरी
$1,910 वॉल्यूम
4%
Erika Hilton
$3,189 वॉल्यूम
2%
Márcio França
$2,343 वॉल्यूम
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$22,105समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
वॉल्यूम
$22,105समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability for the October 4, 2026 election, driven by recent Genial/Quaest polls from late April showing him leading all scenarios with strong re-election support from 54% of voters, alongside solid approval ratings around 45-65% in Datafolha and Atlas surveys from March-April. His incumbency advantage and infrastructure-focused governance bolster this positioning amid a fragmented right-wing field that deterred a presidential bid. Challenger Fernando Haddad trails at 12%, reflecting PT's weaker state-level polling, while Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França lag due to limited name recognition and support in early surveys. Upcoming primaries and campaign events could influence dynamics in this first-round contest.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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