Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाटार्सीसियो डी फ्रेटास 94%
फर्नांडो हद्दाद 4.4%
एरिका हिल्टन <1%
किम कठागुरी <1%
$279,524 वॉल्यूम
$279,524 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
टार्सीसियो डी फ्रेटास
94%
फर्नांडो हद्दाद
4%
एरिका हिल्टन
1%
किम कठागुरी
<1%
मार्सियो फ्रांसा
<1%
टार्सीसियो डी फ्रेटास 94%
फर्नांडो हद्दाद 4.4%
एरिका हिल्टन <1%
किम कठागुरी <1%
$279,524 वॉल्यूम
$279,524 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
टार्सीसियो डी फ्रेटास
$123,143 वॉल्यूम
94%
फर्नांडो हद्दाद
$47,232 वॉल्यूम
4%
एरिका हिल्टन
$22,704 वॉल्यूम
1%
किम कठागुरी
$75,777 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मार्सियो फ्रांसा
$10,668 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$279,524समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
वॉल्यूम
$279,524समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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