Ruben Rocha Moya’s temporary leave of absence, approved by the Sinaloa state congress on May 3 after his April 30 U.S. indictment on drug-trafficking and cartel-protection charges, remains the dominant factor shaping trader expectations. Rocha, a Morena-aligned governor elected in 2021, framed the step as a short-term measure to cooperate with Mexican authorities while denying the allegations, with an interim governor installed for an initial 30-day period. No subsequent permanent removal, resignation, or congressional ouster vote has occurred in the ensuing two weeks. This sequence of events supports the current 67.5 percent “No” probability, as market participants view the absence as procedural rather than definitive and anticipate Rocha could resume office before or shortly after the May 31 cutoff absent further formal action by state institutions.