**Traders assign an 84% probability that Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) will complete his current House term, reflecting the absence of any public signals of early departure.** Kean returned to Congress on June 30, 2026, after a roughly four-month absence that began in early March, during which he missed over 100 floor votes. He attributed the absence to hospitalization and treatment for depression, stating on the House floor that he was now healthier and ready to resume full duties. Since his return, he has participated in legislative activity and campaign events, including a September 2026 debate against Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett in the competitive NJ-7 district. No official announcements, statements from his office, or credible reporting indicate plans for resignation, retirement, or other premature exit before the term concludes in January 2027. The ongoing re-election contest centers on voter assessments of his health recovery and record rather than any prospect of an immediate vacancy. This sustained presence and lack of disruptive developments underpin the strong market consensus against an early departure.