Recent Starship Version 3 flight tests, including the successful July 2026 integrated test with intact reentry, improved heat shield performance on the upper stage, and Starlink payload deployment, have advanced reusability milestones for the Raptor-powered system. However, the market-implied odds favoring "No" reflect that neither rapid tower catches of the Ship nor multiple reflights of a single vehicle have occurred yet, despite prior Super Heavy booster recoveries. Key remaining hurdles include durable thermal protection system reuse, in-space propellant transfer demonstrations, and FAA approvals for orbital and landing profiles. Traders are watching upcoming catch attempts and flight cadence increases through late 2026 as potential swing factors before any 2027 operational threshold.