PSOE leads trader expectations for the Álava seat in Spain’s November 29 general election, consistent with constituency-level forecasts placing the party at roughly 26% of the vote and a 67% implied win probability. EH Bildu follows at around 20%, with PP and PNV trailing further behind in models that allocate one seat each to the top four parties under d’Hondt rules. Recent candidate lists published in the BOE on October 28 highlight experienced regional figures such as Javier Hurtado for PSOE and Gorka Urtaran for PNV, though national polling trends favoring PP have not altered Álava-specific projections in the past month. The market pricing reflects this stable competitive dynamic ahead of the vote.