Recent polling averages and seat projections for Spain’s November 29 general election show the PP and Vox together on track for 190–200 seats in the 350-seat Congress, well above the 176-seat absolute majority threshold in the large majority of simulations. This positioning stems from sustained right-bloc strength since the 2023 results, with Vox roughly doubling its representation while the PP holds a narrow lead or close contest with the PSOE. The left remains fragmented after the Broad Front’s formation and the failure of a full nationwide alliance including Podemos, limiting its ability to replicate the 2023 investiture support. Sánchez’s decision to call the snap election followed parliamentary setbacks and ongoing pressures over housing, migration, and governance, further constraining PSOE coalition prospects. Traders therefore price the PP+Vox majority outcome at high probability based on consistent evidence across multiple pollsters and aggregators.