Johnny Garcia holds a 66% implied probability in the TX-35 contest because his law enforcement background as a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy and moderate positioning have helped him compete effectively in the redrawn, majority-Hispanic district that Republicans targeted for a flip during 2025 mid-decade redistricting. Polls from Emerson College and others show the race within the margin of error, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating to Toss-up on October 23. Early voting, which began October 19 and runs through October 30, coincides with high-profile campaigning by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for Garcia and a recent Trump visit boosting Carlos De La Cruz. Both candidates raised nearly $2 million, underscoring the national focus on this open seat ahead of the November 3 election.