Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाUT -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
UT -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$27,212 वॉल्यूम
$27,212 वॉल्यूम
4 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
77%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
17%
$27,212 वॉल्यूम
$27,212 वॉल्यूम
4 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$1,431 वॉल्यूम
77%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$25,782 वॉल्यूम
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$27,212समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$27,212समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Utah's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by court-ordered redistricting in late 2025 that created a D+12 PVI district—Kamala Harris would have carried it by 24 points in 2024 simulations—transforming it into Utah's safest Democratic bastion and an open seat after incumbent Blake Moore shifted to UT-02. Recent April 25 party conventions advanced progressive Liban Mohamed alongside moderates Ben McAdams and Nate Blouin to the June 23 Democratic primary, energizing the base, while Republican Riley Owen secured the GOP convention nod for his uncontested primary path. GOP odds languish at 7.7% amid weak fundraising and name recognition against the district's steep partisan tilt, though primary outcomes or national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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