Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Google a 39% implied probability of claiming the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Style Control leaderboard by June 30, narrowly ahead of Alibaba at 33%, amid a fiercely contested race with Moonshot and Zhipu AI tied at 26.7%. This positioning stems from Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holding #4 (1492 Elo) as of May 7—close to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at #3 (1498)—bolstered by proprietary scale advantages, while Alibaba's Qwen3.6 Max previews (#32) and recent launches like Qwen3-Max (January 2026) showcase Chinese labs' rapid iteration outpacing U.S. rivals in open-weight benchmarks. Key differentiators include style control's penalty on verbosity favoring concise reasoning, with Zhipu GLM-5.1 (#19) and Moonshot Kimi K2.6 (#28) climbing via agentic enhancements. Swing factors: pre-deadline releases like Gemini 3.5 or Qwen4, plus fresh Arena votes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 50%
Google 23%
DeepSeek 7%
xAI 7%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
Anthropic
49%
26%
DeepSeek
7%
xAI
7%
OpenAI
6%
Mistral
3%
Meta
3%
ByteDance
2%
Alibaba
22%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
11%
Microsoft
13%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
8%
Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
DeepSeek 7%
xAI 7%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
Anthropic
$302 वॉल्यूम
49%
$407 वॉल्यूम
26%
DeepSeek
$179 वॉल्यूम
7%
xAI
$193 वॉल्यूम
7%
OpenAI
$243 वॉल्यूम
6%
Mistral
$179 वॉल्यूम
3%
Meta
$119 वॉल्यूम
3%
ByteDance
$119 वॉल्यूम
2%
Alibaba
$179 वॉल्यूम
22%
Z.ai
$119 वॉल्यूम
1%
Baidu
$174 वॉल्यूम
1%
Amazon
$179 वॉल्यूम
11%
Microsoft
$179 वॉल्यूम
13%
Moonshot
$119 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$179 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Google a 39% implied probability of claiming the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Style Control leaderboard by June 30, narrowly ahead of Alibaba at 33%, amid a fiercely contested race with Moonshot and Zhipu AI tied at 26.7%. This positioning stems from Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holding #4 (1492 Elo) as of May 7—close to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at #3 (1498)—bolstered by proprietary scale advantages, while Alibaba's Qwen3.6 Max previews (#32) and recent launches like Qwen3-Max (January 2026) showcase Chinese labs' rapid iteration outpacing U.S. rivals in open-weight benchmarks. Key differentiators include style control's penalty on verbosity favoring concise reasoning, with Zhipu GLM-5.1 (#19) and Moonshot Kimi K2.6 (#28) climbing via agentic enhancements. Swing factors: pre-deadline releases like Gemini 3.5 or Qwen4, plus fresh Arena votes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,869समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Google a 39% implied probability of claiming the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Style Control leaderboard by June 30, narrowly ahead of Alibaba at 33%, amid a fiercely contested race with Moonshot and Zhipu AI tied at 26.7%. This positioning stems from Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holding #4 (1492 Elo) as of May 7—close to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at #3 (1498)—bolstered by proprietary scale advantages, while Alibaba's Qwen3.6 Max previews (#32) and recent launches like Qwen3-Max (January 2026) showcase Chinese labs' rapid iteration outpacing U.S. rivals in open-weight benchmarks. Key differentiators include style control's penalty on verbosity favoring concise reasoning, with Zhipu GLM-5.1 (#19) and Moonshot Kimi K2.6 (#28) climbing via agentic enhancements. Swing factors: pre-deadline releases like Gemini 3.5 or Qwen4, plus fresh Arena votes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$2,869समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Google a 39% implied probability of claiming the #3 spot on LMArena's Text Arena Style Control leaderboard by June 30, narrowly ahead of Alibaba at 33%, amid a fiercely contested race with Moonshot and Zhipu AI tied at 26.7%. This positioning stems from Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview holding #4 (1492 Elo) as of May 7—close to Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at #3 (1498)—bolstered by proprietary scale advantages, while Alibaba's Qwen3.6 Max previews (#32) and recent launches like Qwen3-Max (January 2026) showcase Chinese labs' rapid iteration outpacing U.S. rivals in open-weight benchmarks. Key differentiators include style control's penalty on verbosity favoring concise reasoning, with Zhipu GLM-5.1 (#19) and Moonshot Kimi K2.6 (#28) climbing via agentic enhancements. Swing factors: pre-deadline releases like Gemini 3.5 or Qwen4, plus fresh Arena votes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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