The market’s 63.5 percent implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane will make U.S. landfall before 2027 stems primarily from pre-season forecasts calling for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major systems overall, citing a likely transition from weak La Niña to El Niño conditions that will elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Historical analogs show major-hurricane landfall odds at roughly 43 percent in average years, yet current model consensus places the probability of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the continental United States at just 32 percent. Traders are also monitoring the National Hurricane Center’s first official outlook, scheduled for release May 21, which could refine these early signals and shift sentiment if sea-surface temperatures or steering patterns deviate from expectations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 4 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
$327,991 वॉल्यूम
$327,991 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$327,991 वॉल्यूम
$327,991 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The market’s 63.5 percent implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane will make U.S. landfall before 2027 stems primarily from pre-season forecasts calling for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major systems overall, citing a likely transition from weak La Niña to El Niño conditions that will elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Historical analogs show major-hurricane landfall odds at roughly 43 percent in average years, yet current model consensus places the probability of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the continental United States at just 32 percent. Traders are also monitoring the National Hurricane Center’s first official outlook, scheduled for release May 21, which could refine these early signals and shift sentiment if sea-surface temperatures or steering patterns deviate from expectations.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$327,991समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The market’s 63.5 percent implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane will make U.S. landfall before 2027 stems primarily from pre-season forecasts calling for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major systems overall, citing a likely transition from weak La Niña to El Niño conditions that will elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Historical analogs show major-hurricane landfall odds at roughly 43 percent in average years, yet current model consensus places the probability of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the continental United States at just 32 percent. Traders are also monitoring the National Hurricane Center’s first official outlook, scheduled for release May 21, which could refine these early signals and shift sentiment if sea-surface temperatures or steering patterns deviate from expectations.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$327,991समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market’s 63.5 percent implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane will make U.S. landfall before 2027 stems primarily from pre-season forecasts calling for below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects only six hurricanes and two major systems overall, citing a likely transition from weak La Niña to El Niño conditions that will elevate vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Historical analogs show major-hurricane landfall odds at roughly 43 percent in average years, yet current model consensus places the probability of at least one Category 3–5 strike along the continental United States at just 32 percent. Traders are also monitoring the National Hurricane Center’s first official outlook, scheduled for release May 21, which could refine these early signals and shift sentiment if sea-surface temperatures or steering patterns deviate from expectations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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