ByteDance's private valuation, recently estimated in secondary markets between $268 billion and $550 billion depending on the transaction, reflects heavy 2026 capital expenditures projected up to $70 billion for AI infrastructure and data centers alongside TikTok's global user engagement and advertising revenue trends. Trader sentiment on a near-term threshold by October 31 hinges on whether fresh secondary share sales or internal buyback pricing emerges before month-end, tempered by ongoing U.S. regulatory pressures around TikTok divestiture and broader China tech policy shifts. Macro factors such as risk appetite in emerging-market tech and comparable private valuations in AI-driven platforms also influence implied probabilities, with any confirmed funding round or revenue beat serving as the key catalyst before resolution.