Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, sustained logistics surges, or force concentrations required for a cross-strait landing. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills rather than escalation, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments that favor coercion over force and see no fixed timeline for unification. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, including record reservist mobilization and anti-blockade drills through mid-August 2026, highlight defensive preparations without triggering corresponding PLA surges. Low-probability shifts could still arise from miscalculation amid routine tensions or abrupt policy moves, though steep logistical, weather, and alliance barriers constrain such outcomes before the cutoff.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
<1% संभावना
$1,910,243 वॉल्यूम
$1,910,243 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
हाँ
<1% संभावना
$1,910,243 वॉल्यूम
$1,910,243 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, sustained logistics surges, or force concentrations required for a cross-strait landing. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills rather than escalation, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments that favor coercion over force and see no fixed timeline for unification. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, including record reservist mobilization and anti-blockade drills through mid-August 2026, highlight defensive preparations without triggering corresponding PLA surges. Low-probability shifts could still arise from miscalculation amid routine tensions or abrupt policy moves, though steep logistical, weather, and alliance barriers constrain such outcomes before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,910,243समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, sustained logistics surges, or force concentrations required for a cross-strait landing. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills rather than escalation, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments that favor coercion over force and see no fixed timeline for unification. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, including record reservist mobilization and anti-blockade drills through mid-August 2026, highlight defensive preparations without triggering corresponding PLA surges. Low-probability shifts could still arise from miscalculation amid routine tensions or abrupt policy moves, though steep logistical, weather, and alliance barriers constrain such outcomes before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$1,910,243समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale PLA amphibious buildups, sustained logistics surges, or force concentrations required for a cross-strait landing. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through air and maritime incursions, coast guard patrols, and live-fire drills rather than escalation, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments that favor coercion over force and see no fixed timeline for unification. Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, including record reservist mobilization and anti-blockade drills through mid-August 2026, highlight defensive preparations without triggering corresponding PLA surges. Low-probability shifts could still arise from miscalculation amid routine tensions or abrupt policy moves, though steep logistical, weather, and alliance barriers constrain such outcomes before the cutoff.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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