Ongoing state antitrust litigation remains the dominant factor behind the 78% market-implied probability against closing by year-end. A July 2026 federal court order, secured by 12 attorneys general, has paused the $111 billion Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery until after a merits ruling or June 2027 at latest, shifting the outside closing date well beyond December 31. While the U.S. DOJ granted clearance in June and shareholders approved the deal earlier, the injunction and scheduled March 2027 trial create months of unavoidable delay. Paramount has secured most international regulatory nods and added ticking fees for late closure, yet traders see realistic scenarios where appeals and proceedings push finalization into 2027 despite the companies' prior Q3 2026 target.