The US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026 stands as the sole verified instance of such an action this year, executed via targeted intelligence and special forces amid longstanding federal charges. No comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have materialized since, despite subsequent US and Israeli strikes in Iran that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than detaining him, along with diplomatic pressure on figures in Cuba and warnings issued to the Taliban. With roughly three months remaining in the calendar year and no confirmed planning or intelligence indicators pointing to additional captures, trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for “No” aligns with the operational, diplomatic, and legal barriers that make repeat actions of this nature infrequent and dependent on specific, converging conditions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या अमेरिका 2026 में एक और विश्व नेता पर कब्जा करेगा?
क्या अमेरिका 2026 में एक और विश्व नेता पर कब्जा करेगा?
हाँ
6% संभावना
$82,559 वॉल्यूम
$82,559 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
6% संभावना
$82,559 वॉल्यूम
$82,559 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026 stands as the sole verified instance of such an action this year, executed via targeted intelligence and special forces amid longstanding federal charges. No comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have materialized since, despite subsequent US and Israeli strikes in Iran that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than detaining him, along with diplomatic pressure on figures in Cuba and warnings issued to the Taliban. With roughly three months remaining in the calendar year and no confirmed planning or intelligence indicators pointing to additional captures, trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for “No” aligns with the operational, diplomatic, and legal barriers that make repeat actions of this nature infrequent and dependent on specific, converging conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$82,559समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026 stands as the sole verified instance of such an action this year, executed via targeted intelligence and special forces amid longstanding federal charges. No comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have materialized since, despite subsequent US and Israeli strikes in Iran that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than detaining him, along with diplomatic pressure on figures in Cuba and warnings issued to the Taliban. With roughly three months remaining in the calendar year and no confirmed planning or intelligence indicators pointing to additional captures, trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for “No” aligns with the operational, diplomatic, and legal barriers that make repeat actions of this nature infrequent and dependent on specific, converging conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$82,559समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026 stands as the sole verified instance of such an action this year, executed via targeted intelligence and special forces amid longstanding federal charges. No comparable operations against other sitting heads of state have materialized since, despite subsequent US and Israeli strikes in Iran that eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than detaining him, along with diplomatic pressure on figures in Cuba and warnings issued to the Taliban. With roughly three months remaining in the calendar year and no confirmed planning or intelligence indicators pointing to additional captures, trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for “No” aligns with the operational, diplomatic, and legal barriers that make repeat actions of this nature infrequent and dependent on specific, converging conditions.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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