Recent U.S. actions in Latin America, including the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro through a limited special operations strike, have shaped trader assessments that a full-scale invasion remains improbable for the balance of 2026. Subsequent developments have centered on targeted counter-cartel operations, such as joint military efforts with Ecuadorian forces announced in March, alongside intensified sanctions and rhetoric directed at narcotics networks in Mexico and Colombia. These steps align with longstanding U.S. focus on narco-terrorism and regional security cooperation rather than territorial occupation or regime change through large-scale military deployment. Ongoing diplomatic pressures on Cuba and public statements from administration officials have not escalated into invasion planning, supporting the current 77% implied probability assigned to no invasion occurring.