Trump’s reluctance to pursue clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, combined with sharp divisions on the Republican-led House Oversight Committee, has anchored trader expectations that no pardon will occur by the end of 2026. Committee Chair James Comer has stated the panel remains split on conditioning any clemency on Maxwell’s cooperation with the Epstein investigation, while Democrats and victims’ advocates have voiced strong opposition. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule a pardon in or out, citing the need for Justice Department input, yet has shown no recent movement toward action. These political constraints, alongside Maxwell’s ongoing appeals and prison status, have sustained the 90.5 percent implied probability that the market will resolve against a pardon within the resolution window.