Apple’s decision to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 over any Vision Pro successor is the main factor behind the 94.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Reports from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in May and June 2026 indicate Apple has shelved the cheaper Vision Air project and placed the next-generation headset on ice, reallocating engineering resources after lukewarm consumer response to the original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh. With no active development pipeline or supply-chain signals pointing to a 2026 launch, traders see release before 2027 as highly unlikely. A last-minute acceleration tied to an unexpected product event or major component breakthrough could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence makes such a scenario improbable.
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Dec 30, 2026
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Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 over any Vision Pro successor is the main factor behind the 94.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Reports from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in May and June 2026 indicate Apple has shelved the cheaper Vision Air project and placed the next-generation headset on ice, reallocating engineering resources after lukewarm consumer response to the original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh. With no active development pipeline or supply-chain signals pointing to a 2026 launch, traders see release before 2027 as highly unlikely. A last-minute acceleration tied to an unexpected product event or major component breakthrough could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence makes such a scenario improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$5,998Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 over any Vision Pro successor is the main factor behind the 94.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Reports from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in May and June 2026 indicate Apple has shelved the cheaper Vision Air project and placed the next-generation headset on ice, reallocating engineering resources after lukewarm consumer response to the original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh. With no active development pipeline or supply-chain signals pointing to a 2026 launch, traders see release before 2027 as highly unlikely. A last-minute acceleration tied to an unexpected product event or major component breakthrough could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence makes such a scenario improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,998Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to prioritize AI smart glasses slated for late 2027 over any Vision Pro successor is the main factor behind the 94.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Reports from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo in May and June 2026 indicate Apple has shelved the cheaper Vision Air project and placed the next-generation headset on ice, reallocating engineering resources after lukewarm consumer response to the original 2024 model and its 2025 M5 refresh. With no active development pipeline or supply-chain signals pointing to a 2026 launch, traders see release before 2027 as highly unlikely. A last-minute acceleration tied to an unexpected product event or major component breakthrough could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence makes such a scenario improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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