Kris Mayes holds a commanding lead in the Arizona attorney general race following the November 3 election, with early returns showing her ahead by roughly 13 to 16 points. Pre-election polling averages placed the Democratic incumbent up by 6 to 9 points, bolstered by a substantial fundraising advantage and voter focus on her consumer protection record and state-federal litigation. Republican challenger Warren Petersen, the state Senate president, secured his nomination in July but trailed consistently in surveys. Prediction market pricing reflects this evidence of a decisive margin unlikely to reverse during remaining vote tabulation and certification. Late shifts in mail or provisional ballots or post-election legal disputes represent the narrow paths that could still alter the outcome before final certification.