Amish Shah holds a strong lead in trader pricing for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by retiring Republican David Schweikert, now carries Lean Democratic ratings from Cook and several other forecasters following October updates. Shah, a former state legislator and emergency physician who won his July primary, benefits from the district’s narrow recent margins and documented outside spending favoring Democrats. Jay Feely, the Republican nominee and Trump-endorsed former NFL player, trails amid limited public polling that shows a close general-election contest and substantial Republican outside expenditures. The November 3 ballot approaches with early-voting deadlines recently passed, leaving limited time for late shifts in a race forecasters view as competitive yet tilting toward the Democratic nominee.