Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a clear edge in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 election, with prediction market pricing reflecting the district’s Republican registration advantage and recent historical results. Crane won the seat by roughly nine points in 2024 in a district Donald Trump carried by double digits, and most nonpartisan ratings classify the rematch against Democrat Jonathan Nez as Lean or Likely Republican. Recent polling has shown the race tightening, including one survey placing Nez narrowly ahead within the margin of error, while outside spending has surged with Republican-aligned groups outspending Democratic efforts by more than two-to-one in the final weeks. Nez has emphasized grassroots support and local issues such as water rights, yet Crane’s incumbency, higher fundraising totals, and alignment with core district voters continue to underpin trader consensus around a 70 percent probability for the Republican hold.