Recent polling from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA places the CDU between 20% and 21% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting a decline from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The shift stems from the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner amid scrutiny over crisis communications following a major power outage, followed by the late selection of Stefan Evers as lead candidate. A fragmented field with the Left party edging ahead at 21–23%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens around 16% has kept the CDU in a competitive but narrower band. These consistent survey trends across the past month underpin trader consensus around the 20–23% interval, while the low probability assigned to outcomes above 23% or below 17% aligns with the stability of recent data and the absence of major late-campaign catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui20-23% 46%
17-20% 36%
<17% 12%
23%+ 3.5%
$24,847 Vol.
$24,847 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<17%
12%
17-20%
36%
20-23%
46%
23%+
4%
20-23% 46%
17-20% 36%
<17% 12%
23%+ 3.5%
$24,847 Vol.
$24,847 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<17%
$6,459 Vol.
12%
17-20%
$8,270 Vol.
36%
20-23%
$7,497 Vol.
46%
23%+
$2,621 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA places the CDU between 20% and 21% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting a decline from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The shift stems from the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner amid scrutiny over crisis communications following a major power outage, followed by the late selection of Stefan Evers as lead candidate. A fragmented field with the Left party edging ahead at 21–23%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens around 16% has kept the CDU in a competitive but narrower band. These consistent survey trends across the past month underpin trader consensus around the 20–23% interval, while the low probability assigned to outcomes above 23% or below 17% aligns with the stability of recent data and the absence of major late-campaign catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$24,847Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA places the CDU between 20% and 21% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting a decline from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The shift stems from the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner amid scrutiny over crisis communications following a major power outage, followed by the late selection of Stefan Evers as lead candidate. A fragmented field with the Left party edging ahead at 21–23%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens around 16% has kept the CDU in a competitive but narrower band. These consistent survey trends across the past month underpin trader consensus around the 20–23% interval, while the low probability assigned to outcomes above 23% or below 17% aligns with the stability of recent data and the absence of major late-campaign catalysts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$24,847Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes including Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA places the CDU between 20% and 21% in the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting a decline from its 28.2% result in the 2023 repeat vote. The shift stems from the July withdrawal of incumbent mayor Kai Wegner amid scrutiny over crisis communications following a major power outage, followed by the late selection of Stefan Evers as lead candidate. A fragmented field with the Left party edging ahead at 21–23%, the AfD near 18%, and the Greens around 16% has kept the CDU in a competitive but narrower band. These consistent survey trends across the past month underpin trader consensus around the 20–23% interval, while the low probability assigned to outcomes above 23% or below 17% aligns with the stability of recent data and the absence of major late-campaign catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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