Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54% against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers in California's 8th district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, positioning it as a safe hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Multiple margin-of-victory buckets trade in a narrow band near 42% because the race lacks recent public polling, leaving traders to weigh historical margins, incumbent strength, turnout patterns in key counties, and any national midterm shifts. Recile's primary showing and limited Republican infrastructure cap upside for larger GOP margins, while Garamendi's established support makes extreme outcomes less likely absent major late developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-08 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-08 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 25-30% 42.7%
Democrat 50-55% 42.5%
Democrat 30-35% 42.4%
Democrat 55%+ 42.2%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 55%+
42%
Democrat 50-55%
43%
Democrat 45-50%
32%
Democrat 40-45%
38%
Democrat 35-40%
31%
Democrat 30-35%
42%
Democrat 25-30%
43%
Democrat 15-25%
39%
Democrat 0-15%
32%
Republican Wins
33%
Democrat 25-30% 42.7%
Democrat 50-55% 42.5%
Democrat 30-35% 42.4%
Democrat 55%+ 42.2%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 55%+
$334 Vol.
42%
Democrat 50-55%
$304 Vol.
43%
Democrat 45-50%
$304 Vol.
32%
Democrat 40-45%
$304 Vol.
38%
Democrat 35-40%
$304 Vol.
31%
Democrat 30-35%
$334 Vol.
42%
Democrat 25-30%
$334 Vol.
43%
Democrat 15-25%
$304 Vol.
39%
Democrat 0-15%
$384 Vol.
32%
Republican Wins
$304 Vol.
33%
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54% against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers in California's 8th district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, positioning it as a safe hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Multiple margin-of-victory buckets trade in a narrow band near 42% because the race lacks recent public polling, leaving traders to weigh historical margins, incumbent strength, turnout patterns in key counties, and any national midterm shifts. Recile's primary showing and limited Republican infrastructure cap upside for larger GOP margins, while Garamendi's established support makes extreme outcomes less likely absent major late developments.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$3,211Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54% against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers in California's 8th district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, positioning it as a safe hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Multiple margin-of-victory buckets trade in a narrow band near 42% because the race lacks recent public polling, leaving traders to weigh historical margins, incumbent strength, turnout patterns in key counties, and any national midterm shifts. Recile's primary showing and limited Republican infrastructure cap upside for larger GOP margins, while Garamendi's established support makes extreme outcomes less likely absent major late developments.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,211Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 54% against Republican Rudy Recile and other Democratic challengers in California's 8th district. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results, positioning it as a safe hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Multiple margin-of-victory buckets trade in a narrow band near 42% because the race lacks recent public polling, leaving traders to weigh historical margins, incumbent strength, turnout patterns in key counties, and any national midterm shifts. Recile's primary showing and limited Republican infrastructure cap upside for larger GOP margins, while Garamendi's established support makes extreme outcomes less likely absent major late developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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