China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set during the March National People’s Congress and reiterated in the government work report, anchors trader expectations around the 4–5 percent range. First-quarter data released in mid-April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, supported by resilient exports and early fiscal deployment, yet tempered by subdued household consumption and lingering property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including energy-price volatility linked to Middle East developments, add downside risks that limit upside bets above 5 percent. With the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizing stability over acceleration, the current distribution reflects broad alignment between official guidance and independent forecasts clustered near 4.7–4.8 percent.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 30.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
6.0-7.0% <1%
$572,104 Vol.
$572,104 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
69%
5.0–6.0%
30%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 69%
5.0–6.0% 30.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
6.0-7.0% <1%
$572,104 Vol.
$572,104 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$44,526 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$43,665 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$23,945 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$46,550 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$138,757 Vol.
69%
5.0–6.0%
$56,351 Vol.
30%
6.0-7.0%
$51,210 Vol.
1%
7.0–8.0%
$55,935 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$24,153 Vol.
<1%
9.0%+
$87,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set during the March National People’s Congress and reiterated in the government work report, anchors trader expectations around the 4–5 percent range. First-quarter data released in mid-April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, supported by resilient exports and early fiscal deployment, yet tempered by subdued household consumption and lingering property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including energy-price volatility linked to Middle East developments, add downside risks that limit upside bets above 5 percent. With the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizing stability over acceleration, the current distribution reflects broad alignment between official guidance and independent forecasts clustered near 4.7–4.8 percent.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$572,104Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set during the March National People’s Congress and reiterated in the government work report, anchors trader expectations around the 4–5 percent range. First-quarter data released in mid-April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, supported by resilient exports and early fiscal deployment, yet tempered by subdued household consumption and lingering property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including energy-price volatility linked to Middle East developments, add downside risks that limit upside bets above 5 percent. With the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizing stability over acceleration, the current distribution reflects broad alignment between official guidance and independent forecasts clustered near 4.7–4.8 percent.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$572,104Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, set during the March National People’s Congress and reiterated in the government work report, anchors trader expectations around the 4–5 percent range. First-quarter data released in mid-April showed 5 percent year-on-year expansion, supported by resilient exports and early fiscal deployment, yet tempered by subdued household consumption and lingering property-sector weakness. Geopolitical tensions, including energy-price volatility linked to Middle East developments, add downside risks that limit upside bets above 5 percent. With the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizing stability over acceleration, the current distribution reflects broad alignment between official guidance and independent forecasts clustered near 4.7–4.8 percent.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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