Elon Musk’s historically high but variable posting pace on X drives the 1000+ bracket to the top of the October 2026 market at 35.5% implied probability. Recent weekly settlements in August 2026 have fluctuated sharply between low-40s and 300-plus counts, with last-12-week averages near 143 posts, reflecting slower weekends offset by spikes tied to news cycles, Starship updates, and political commentary. Traders price in the potential for sustained daily volume of 30–40 main-feed posts to push a full month past 1000, consistent with peak periods earlier in 2026, while lower brackets capture the risk of quieter stretches. No major October catalysts have yet surfaced to shift this consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1000+ 34%
880-919 12%
840-879 8%
960-999 8%
$20,060 Vol.
$20,060 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
3%
560-579
1%
580-599
1%
600-619
5%
620-639
3%
640-659
4%
660-679
6%
680-699
6%
700-719
7%
720-739
5%
740-759
7%
760-779
5%
780-799
7%
800-839
6%
840-879
8%
880-919
12%
920-959
8%
960-999
8%
1000+
34%
1000+ 34%
880-919 12%
840-879 8%
960-999 8%
$20,060 Vol.
$20,060 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<20
$525 Vol.
<1%
20-39
$435 Vol.
<1%
40-59
$430 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$445 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$440 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$515 Vol.
<1%
120-139
$495 Vol.
<1%
140-159
$510 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$310 Vol.
<1%
180-199
$500 Vol.
<1%
200-219
$490 Vol.
<1%
220-239
$410 Vol.
<1%
240-259
$495 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$410 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$495 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$497 Vol.
1%
320-339
$497 Vol.
1%
340-359
$495 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$510 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$495 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$805 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$1,395 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$475 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$475 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$1,002 Vol.
1%
500-519
$75 Vol.
1%
520-539
$75 Vol.
1%
540-559
$25 Vol.
3%
560-579
$75 Vol.
1%
580-599
$637 Vol.
1%
600-619
$0 Vol.
5%
620-639
$20 Vol.
3%
640-659
$0 Vol.
4%
660-679
$20 Vol.
6%
680-699
$20 Vol.
6%
700-719
$20 Vol.
7%
720-739
$470 Vol.
5%
740-759
$20 Vol.
7%
760-779
$320 Vol.
5%
780-799
$396 Vol.
7%
800-839
$510 Vol.
6%
840-879
$20 Vol.
8%
880-919
$1,486 Vol.
12%
920-959
$20 Vol.
8%
960-999
$510 Vol.
8%
1000+
$1,867 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s historically high but variable posting pace on X drives the 1000+ bracket to the top of the October 2026 market at 35.5% implied probability. Recent weekly settlements in August 2026 have fluctuated sharply between low-40s and 300-plus counts, with last-12-week averages near 143 posts, reflecting slower weekends offset by spikes tied to news cycles, Starship updates, and political commentary. Traders price in the potential for sustained daily volume of 30–40 main-feed posts to push a full month past 1000, consistent with peak periods earlier in 2026, while lower brackets capture the risk of quieter stretches. No major October catalysts have yet surfaced to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$20,060Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s historically high but variable posting pace on X drives the 1000+ bracket to the top of the October 2026 market at 35.5% implied probability. Recent weekly settlements in August 2026 have fluctuated sharply between low-40s and 300-plus counts, with last-12-week averages near 143 posts, reflecting slower weekends offset by spikes tied to news cycles, Starship updates, and political commentary. Traders price in the potential for sustained daily volume of 30–40 main-feed posts to push a full month past 1000, consistent with peak periods earlier in 2026, while lower brackets capture the risk of quieter stretches. No major October catalysts have yet surfaced to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of October 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$20,060Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s historically high but variable posting pace on X drives the 1000+ bracket to the top of the October 2026 market at 35.5% implied probability. Recent weekly settlements in August 2026 have fluctuated sharply between low-40s and 300-plus counts, with last-12-week averages near 143 posts, reflecting slower weekends offset by spikes tied to news cycles, Starship updates, and political commentary. Traders price in the potential for sustained daily volume of 30–40 main-feed posts to push a full month past 1000, consistent with peak periods earlier in 2026, while lower brackets capture the risk of quieter stretches. No major October catalysts have yet surfaced to shift this consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan