Official forecasts from global models such as GFS project a daytime high of 24–26°C in Paris on October 4 under mostly clear skies with light northerly winds, supporting the market's near-certain 25°C outcome. This aligns with observational trends and model consensus showing above-average early-autumn warmth driven by high pressure and minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Traders assign overwhelming probability to this range because real-time updates through the day have shown little deviation. A realistic shift below 25°C would require unexpected afternoon cloud build-up or stronger winds, while exceeding it would need sustained clear conditions and higher insolation than currently modeled. Resolution depends on official Météo-France maximum readings.