Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Mexico City nighttime lows on October 6 around 13–16°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light northerly winds associated with the ongoing rainy season. These conditions limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, supporting milder minimums than the October climatological average of roughly 11–12°C. Official guidance from agencies tracking regional patterns shows high humidity and precipitation reducing the potential for sharp drops, while model consensus points to limited day-to-day variability in steering flows. Market-implied odds reflect trader focus on this near-term stability versus residual uncertainty in exact station readings or brief clear spells that could allow slightly cooler outcomes. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution probabilities for thresholds near 13–15°C.