The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 outlook places a marginal severe risk, including a 2% tornado probability, across the Florida Panhandle and far southern Alabama through early Monday, driven by a nearly stationary surface front and a very moist airmass with precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches. Weak low-level shear enhancement from a possible offshore surface low could support transient supercell circulations and brief tornadoes or waterspouts near the coast, though poor lapse rates and marginal instability are expected to limit intensity. Official guidance notes model disagreement on shear trends, with recent RAP runs suggesting reduced potential. Traders should monitor the next SPC update at 0100Z and any National Weather Service warnings for coastal counties including Pensacola and Panama City.