San Francisco’s coastal marine layer and prevailing onshore flow from the Pacific are the dominant factors capping daytime highs near 67–70°F on July 9, 2026, which explains why the 68–69°F and 70–71°F brackets together command over half the market-implied probability. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show modest warming under a building thermal trough, with any inland penetration of warmer air or delayed marine-layer clearance able to push the official KSFO high into the low 70s, while deeper fog or stronger northwest winds would favor the upper 60s. Historical July climatology at the airport places the mean daily maximum at 67–68°F with a standard deviation of roughly 3–4°F, so small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction create the tight clustering traders observe. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs issued overnight will be the next key inputs likely to move the closely matched leading contracts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in San Francisco on July 9?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 9?
66-67°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$45,181 Vol.
$45,181 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
59°F or below
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
Yes
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F or higher
No
66-67°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$45,181 Vol.
$45,181 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
59°F or below
$1,791 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,064 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$3,248 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$5,205 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$8,963 Vol.
Yes
68-69°F
$10,997 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$5,987 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$2,852 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,562 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$1,309 Vol.
No
78°F or higher
$2,202 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.San Francisco’s coastal marine layer and prevailing onshore flow from the Pacific are the dominant factors capping daytime highs near 67–70°F on July 9, 2026, which explains why the 68–69°F and 70–71°F brackets together command over half the market-implied probability. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show modest warming under a building thermal trough, with any inland penetration of warmer air or delayed marine-layer clearance able to push the official KSFO high into the low 70s, while deeper fog or stronger northwest winds would favor the upper 60s. Historical July climatology at the airport places the mean daily maximum at 67–68°F with a standard deviation of roughly 3–4°F, so small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction create the tight clustering traders observe. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs issued overnight will be the next key inputs likely to move the closely matched leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 7, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volume
$45,181Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.San Francisco’s coastal marine layer and prevailing onshore flow from the Pacific are the dominant factors capping daytime highs near 67–70°F on July 9, 2026, which explains why the 68–69°F and 70–71°F brackets together command over half the market-implied probability. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show modest warming under a building thermal trough, with any inland penetration of warmer air or delayed marine-layer clearance able to push the official KSFO high into the low 70s, while deeper fog or stronger northwest winds would favor the upper 60s. Historical July climatology at the airport places the mean daily maximum at 67–68°F with a standard deviation of roughly 3–4°F, so small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction create the tight clustering traders observe. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs issued overnight will be the next key inputs likely to move the closely matched leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,181Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 7, 2026, 10:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
San Francisco’s coastal marine layer and prevailing onshore flow from the Pacific are the dominant factors capping daytime highs near 67–70°F on July 9, 2026, which explains why the 68–69°F and 70–71°F brackets together command over half the market-implied probability. National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs show modest warming under a building thermal trough, with any inland penetration of warmer air or delayed marine-layer clearance able to push the official KSFO high into the low 70s, while deeper fog or stronger northwest winds would favor the upper 60s. Historical July climatology at the airport places the mean daily maximum at 67–68°F with a standard deviation of roughly 3–4°F, so small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction create the tight clustering traders observe. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs issued overnight will be the next key inputs likely to move the closely matched leading contracts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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