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Ekonomi·Bisnis

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Ekonomi·Bisnis

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$214,585 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$214,585 Vol.

Polymarket

3.9%

$40,687 Vol.

36%

3.8%

$39,358 Vol.

30%

3.7%

$26,365 Vol.

20%

3.6%

$4,730 Vol.

23%

3.5%

$31,523 Vol.

40%

3.0%

$446 Vol.

13%

2.0%

$341 Vol.

10%

1.0%

$39,559 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April inflation readings, including a 1.4% monthly jump in producer prices and elevated core PCE near 3.2%, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%—its highest level since mid-2025. This shift has tempered market-implied expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, with the policy rate now held steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and resilient nonfarm payrolls. Traders are monitoring upcoming May CPI, retail sales, and FOMC communications for signals on whether persistent inflation above the 2% target will keep long-term yields elevated or allow a modest decline toward historical averages before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$214,585
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April inflation readings, including a 1.4% monthly jump in producer prices and elevated core PCE near 3.2%, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%—its highest level since mid-2025. This shift has tempered market-implied expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, with the policy rate now held steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and resilient nonfarm payrolls. Traders are monitoring upcoming May CPI, retail sales, and FOMC communications for signals on whether persistent inflation above the 2% target will keep long-term yields elevated or allow a modest decline toward historical averages before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$214,585
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "4.0%" di 100%, diikuti oleh "3.5%" di 40%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $214.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" adalah "4.0%" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "3.5%" di 40%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.