Current ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and regional models indicate Istanbul's overnight low on October 10 will likely fall in the 14–17°C range under clear skies, light southerly flow, and high pressure, with minimal cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. These conditions align with climatological norms for early October and explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around mid-range outcomes. The near-even odds between 20°C-or-higher and 10°C-or-below reflect residual model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind shifts, which could nudge the minimum by a few degrees either way before resolution. Updated runs from national meteorological agencies will provide the final observational tiebreaker.