**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.** Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in London on July 15?
Lowest temperature in London on July 15?
19°C 36%
18°C 32%
17°C 25%
16°C 4.3%
BARU
BARU
Jul 15, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
25%
18°C
32%
19°C
36%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 36%
18°C 32%
17°C 25%
16°C 4.3%
BARU
BARU
Jul 15, 2026
13°C or below
$339 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$169 Vol.
1%
16°C
$177 Vol.
4%
17°C
$212 Vol.
25%
18°C
$547 Vol.
32%
19°C
$525 Vol.
36%
20°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$271 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$220 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.**
Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,311Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.**
Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,311Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.** Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan