US-Cuba relations remain strained in 2026 under the current administration, with the longstanding trade embargo reinforced by a May executive order adding tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, expanded sanctions on Cuban officials, and re-designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. A US fuel blockade since January has deepened Cuba’s economic and energy crisis. In June, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero announced openness to foreign fast-food franchises and private restaurant chains nationwide, with President Miguel Díaz-Canel indicating interest in international brands but providing no timelines or specific approvals. McDonald’s has made no announcements or moves toward market entry, and no bilateral policy shifts have eased commercial barriers through mid-August. These factors sustain trader consensus that regulatory and political obstacles make an announcement before year-end highly unlikely.