Recent U.S. legal actions, including a May 2026 federal indictment and Florida’s October 19 state arrest warrant charging Raúl Castro with conspiracy in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, have intensified scrutiny but produced negligible movement toward custody. Castro, aged 95 and residing in Cuba with no extradition treaty in place, faces structural barriers that limit enforcement to symbolic travel restrictions or hypothetical third-country arrests. Stalled bilateral talks, Cuba’s rejection of U.S. demands, and the absence of scheduled events capable of altering his location keep trader consensus on near-term custody low. Health-related rumors and limited public appearances add uncertainty without shifting practical probabilities.