Trader consensus prices "Nothing" at 86% midway through May, reflecting the absence of any triggering events amid sustained geopolitical stability. No US-Iran permanent peace deal has emerged, with stalled diplomacy and Tehran's firm rejections of proposals; Iranian leadership shows no signs of change without official announcements or health crises; WTI crude oil prices linger below $150 per barrel despite Middle East tensions; Russia remains focused on Ukraine without invading a NATO country; and prospects for US military action against Cuba or government confirmation of aliens remain negligible absent credible developments. High structural barriers to these tail-risk scenarios, coupled with no imminent summits or escalations through May 31, anchor the elevated odds, though late-breaking diplomatic shifts or sudden oil spikes could alter sentiment.