Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 4th congressional district, benefits from a D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 flip of the Nassau County-based seat, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 with over 90% of the primary vote but has not generated notable momentum or polling visibility since. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that reflects the district’s structural lean, Gillen’s incumbency advantage, and the absence of major late-cycle developments or national shifts capable of altering the balance before the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
15%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,549 Vol.
87%
Republican Party
$402 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 4th congressional district, benefits from a D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 flip of the Nassau County-based seat, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 with over 90% of the primary vote but has not generated notable momentum or polling visibility since. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that reflects the district’s structural lean, Gillen’s incumbency advantage, and the absence of major late-cycle developments or national shifts capable of altering the balance before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,950Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 4th congressional district, benefits from a D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 flip of the Nassau County-based seat, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 with over 90% of the primary vote but has not generated notable momentum or polling visibility since. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that reflects the district’s structural lean, Gillen’s incumbency advantage, and the absence of major late-cycle developments or national shifts capable of altering the balance before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,950Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent in New York’s 4th congressional district, benefits from a D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 flip of the Nassau County-based seat, and an uncontested Democratic primary. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination in June 2026 with over 90% of the primary vote but has not generated notable momentum or polling visibility since. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Tilt Democratic, consistent with trader pricing that reflects the district’s structural lean, Gillen’s incumbency advantage, and the absence of major late-cycle developments or national shifts capable of altering the balance before the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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