Recent reports of US and China considering tariff cuts on $30 billion of non-sensitive imports ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit have propelled trader consensus to a 69.5% implied probability for a tariff agreement by May 31. Negotiations emphasize numerical trade targets over structural reforms, building on the November 2025 economic arrangement that suspended retaliatory tariffs and paused punitive measures on rare earths and chips. High-level diplomatic signals from USTR officials signal progress, though uncertainties around domestic pressures, escalation risks, and final approvals temper full certainty. Traders weigh this momentum against historical trade war volatility, with resolution hinging on an official bilateral announcement before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$45,068 Vol.
$45,068 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$45,068 Vol.
$45,068 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent reports of US and China considering tariff cuts on $30 billion of non-sensitive imports ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit have propelled trader consensus to a 69.5% implied probability for a tariff agreement by May 31. Negotiations emphasize numerical trade targets over structural reforms, building on the November 2025 economic arrangement that suspended retaliatory tariffs and paused punitive measures on rare earths and chips. High-level diplomatic signals from USTR officials signal progress, though uncertainties around domestic pressures, escalation risks, and final approvals temper full certainty. Traders weigh this momentum against historical trade war volatility, with resolution hinging on an official bilateral announcement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Pasar Dibuka: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$45,068Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent reports of US and China considering tariff cuts on $30 billion of non-sensitive imports ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit have propelled trader consensus to a 69.5% implied probability for a tariff agreement by May 31. Negotiations emphasize numerical trade targets over structural reforms, building on the November 2025 economic arrangement that suspended retaliatory tariffs and paused punitive measures on rare earths and chips. High-level diplomatic signals from USTR officials signal progress, though uncertainties around domestic pressures, escalation risks, and final approvals temper full certainty. Traders weigh this momentum against historical trade war volatility, with resolution hinging on an official bilateral announcement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$45,075Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports of US and China considering tariff cuts on $30 billion of non-sensitive imports ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit have propelled trader consensus to a 69.5% implied probability for a tariff agreement by May 31. Negotiations emphasize numerical trade targets over structural reforms, building on the November 2025 economic arrangement that suspended retaliatory tariffs and paused punitive measures on rare earths and chips. High-level diplomatic signals from USTR officials signal progress, though uncertainties around domestic pressures, escalation risks, and final approvals temper full certainty. Traders weigh this momentum against historical trade war volatility, with resolution hinging on an official bilateral announcement before the deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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