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Politik·Trump-Xi Summit

When will Trump leave China?

icon for When will Trump leave China?
Politik·Trump-Xi Summit

When will Trump leave China?

May 15 98.1%

May 16 1.2%

May 14 <1%

After May 18 <1%

Polymarket

$72,686 Vol.

May 15 98.1%

May 16 1.2%

May 14 <1%

After May 18 <1%

Polymarket

$72,686 Vol.

May 14

$16,980 Vol.

1%

May 15

$15,364 Vol.

98%

May 16

$14,282 Vol.

1%

May 17

$4,775 Vol.

<1%

May 18

$1,219 Vol.

<1%

After May 18

$2,475 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's state visit to Beijing, confirmed by White House and Chinese officials, is scheduled to conclude on May 15 after a working lunch with Xi Jinping, anchoring trader consensus at 97.9% for that departure date amid published itineraries detailing a state banquet on May 14 followed by final talks. Recent developments, including Trump's arrival earlier this week and advance logistics via U.S. military transport, reinforce adherence to the timeline despite a downsized summit agenda covering trade, Iran, and fentanyl. Scenarios that could challenge this include unforeseen diplomatic extensions, health incidents, severe weather delaying flights, or logistical disruptions, though these remain low-probability given firm protocols for such high-level diplomacy.

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.

A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.

If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.

If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,686
Tanggal Berakhir
May 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's state visit to Beijing, confirmed by White House and Chinese officials, is scheduled to conclude on May 15 after a working lunch with Xi Jinping, anchoring trader consensus at 97.9% for that departure date amid published itineraries detailing a state banquet on May 14 followed by final talks. Recent developments, including Trump's arrival earlier this week and advance logistics via U.S. military transport, reinforce adherence to the timeline despite a downsized summit agenda covering trade, Iran, and fentanyl. Scenarios that could challenge this include unforeseen diplomatic extensions, health incidents, severe weather delaying flights, or logistical disruptions, though these remain low-probability given firm protocols for such high-level diplomacy.

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.

A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.

If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.

If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,686
Tanggal Berakhir
May 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"When will Trump leave China?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "May 15" di 98%, diikuti oleh "May 14" di 1%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 98¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 98% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "When will Trump leave China?" telah menghasilkan $72.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada May 11, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "When will Trump leave China?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "When will Trump leave China?" adalah "May 15" di 98%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 98% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "May 14" di 1%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "When will Trump leave China?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.