The near-certain trader consensus that Pete Hegseth will remain Secretary of Defense through May 31 stems from his uninterrupted performance of core duties, including recent congressional testimony on the fiscal 2027 defense budget and management of ongoing operations. No public statements from the White House or Senate have signaled any intent to replace him, and he continues to engage directly with lawmakers and military leadership on appropriations and strategic matters. With only two weeks remaining in the resolution window, the absence of emerging scandals, health concerns, or policy conflicts that typically prompt cabinet changes reinforces this positioning. A late-breaking development, such as an unexpected resignation or presidential directive, could still alter the outcome, though none has surfaced in the current period.