**The slight edge for "No" at 55.5% reflects Israel's post-dissolution timeline and coalition fragmentation ahead of the October 27, 2026, legislative elections.** The 25th Knesset completed its full term and dissolved itself in July after passing final legislation, placing the Netanyahu-led government in caretaker status with limited authority. A new 26th Knesset will convene after the vote, but forming and confirming a government requires a constructive vote of confidence supported by at least 61 members—an outcome that depends on negotiations among competing blocs. Recent polling shows the right-wing bloc (Likud and allies) projected near or below 50 seats, with opposition parties like Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot) and others gaining ground amid vote-splitting from new entrants such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party. This fragmentation, combined with longstanding tensions over issues like Haredi conscription and bloc alliances, historically extends coalition talks for weeks or months. No-confidence motions against the outgoing government were routinely defeated earlier in 2026, and the current recess further delays any immediate parliamentary action. With elections still two months away and government formation unlikely to conclude before late November or December at the earliest, traders assess a meaningful chance that the required confidence vote will not occur by the December 31 deadline.