This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles βIceman Episode (1-4)β, and the singles βWhat Did I Missβ, βWhich Oneβ, and βDog House.β
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Drake's ninth studio album *Iceman* drops today, May 15, marking the most immediate catalyst in this viral pop culture market as its confirmed streaming rollout on platforms like Spotify precedes GTA VI's locked November 19 launch on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive reaffirmed the date last November after prior delays, despite unverified crunch rumors and developer cutbacks; no further postponements signal stability. Traders eye music frontrunners like potential Rihanna or Playboi Carti albums, AI milestones such as GPT-6, alongside meme bets on Bitcoin $1M or improbable events, with Trailer 3 and pre-orders rumored imminently around May 18 as key watchpoints amid high-volume wagering.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Drake's ninth studio album *Iceman* drops today, May 15, marking the most immediate catalyst in this viral pop culture market as its confirmed streaming rollout on platforms like Spotify precedes GTA VI's locked November 19 launch on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive reaffirmed the date last November after prior delays, despite unverified crunch rumors and developer cutbacks; no further postponements signal stability. Traders eye music frontrunners like potential Rihanna or Playboi Carti albums, AI milestones such as GPT-6, alongside meme bets on Bitcoin $1M or improbable events, with Trailer 3 and pre-orders rumored imminently around May 18 as key watchpoints amid high-volume wagering.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
Mar 20 2026
BTS releases new album 'ARIRANG' after nearly four-year hiatus
BTS released their new album 'ARIRANG' on March 20, 2026, marking their return after military service and increasing market confidence in new music releases before GTA VI.
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Mar 6 2026
Harry Styles announces new album 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally'
Harry Styles announced his new album to be released on March 6, 2026, generating anticipation in the music market and impacting the probabilities of new album releases before GTA VI.
Feb 26 2026
Pam Bondi resigns as Attorney General amid Justice Department upheaval
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
Pam Bondi, a Trump loyalist and Attorney General, resigned in February 2026 after controversies and internal Justice Department turmoil, impacting market views on Trumpβs political stability before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards, first Spanish-language album to do so
New Rihanna Album rises to 55%3%
Bad Bunnyβs album 'DebΓ Tirar MΓ‘s Fotos' won album of the year at the 2026 Grammys, marking a historic moment for Spanish-language music and boosting confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoinβs price decline below levels seen before Trumpβs second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 21 2026
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 54%4%
Meta named Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration adviser, as president and vice chairman in January 2026, signaling closer ties between Trump and major tech firms, influencing GPT-6 release market sentiment.
Jan 20 2026
Donald Trump sworn in for second term as U.S. President
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2026, increasing market attention on his political future and impacting the probability of him being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trumpβs Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondiβs departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
President Trump signs bill returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in January 2026, reversing a previous policy and reflecting his administration's influence on domestic policy, which may affect perceptions of his political future before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 5 2025
Donald Trump elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board, renaming it Trump-Kennedy Center
Trump out as President surges to 50%22%
In December 2025, Donald Trump was elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board and the center was renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, sparking controversy and artist cancellations, influencing market perceptions of Trump's political standing before GTA VI.
Dec 4 2025
Bitcoin price plunges below $67,000, erasing gains since Trumpβs second term
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoinβs price fell sharply in December 2025, dropping below pre-Trump second term levels, reflecting investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, which affected market confidence in Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI.
Nov 19 2025
DEA seizes 628,000 carfentanil pills in Los Angeles, highlighting drug crisis
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
The DEAβs large seizure of carfentanil pills in November 2025 underscored the ongoing opioid crisis, influencing political and social stability perceptions that may affect Trumpβs presidency market odds.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depotβs settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the marketβs view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan amid rising tensions
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%32%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills around Taiwan in November 2025, signaling increased military pressure and raising the perceived risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, angering China
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%33%
The Trump administration announced a massive arms sales package to Taiwan valued at over $10 billion, escalating tensions with China and increasing market expectations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBIβs report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoinβs price potential before GTA VI.
Nov 4 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9 million to compensate victims of bitcoin ATM scams
Bitcoin hits $1m surges to 49%32%
Bitcoin Depot settled with the state of Maine to pay nearly $2 million to compensate victims of fraud involving bitcoin ATMs, highlighting the risks in the cryptocurrency market and influencing Bitcoin hitting $1m market probabilities.
Jun 13 2025
BTS members complete mandatory military service, signaling group comeback
New Playboi Carti Album surges to 53%21%
All seven members of BTS completed their South Korean mandatory military service by June 2025, ending a nearly four-year hiatus and setting the stage for a group comeback. This boosted market confidence in a new BTS album release before GTA VI.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles βIceman Episode (1-4)β, and the singles βWhat Did I Missβ, βWhich Oneβ, and βDog House.β
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Drake's ninth studio album *Iceman* drops today, May 15, marking the most immediate catalyst in this viral pop culture market as its confirmed streaming rollout on platforms like Spotify precedes GTA VI's locked November 19 launch on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive reaffirmed the date last November after prior delays, despite unverified crunch rumors and developer cutbacks; no further postponements signal stability. Traders eye music frontrunners like potential Rihanna or Playboi Carti albums, AI milestones such as GPT-6, alongside meme bets on Bitcoin $1M or improbable events, with Trailer 3 and pre-orders rumored imminently around May 18 as key watchpoints amid high-volume wagering.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Drake's ninth studio album *Iceman* drops today, May 15, marking the most immediate catalyst in this viral pop culture market as its confirmed streaming rollout on platforms like Spotify precedes GTA VI's locked November 19 launch on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive reaffirmed the date last November after prior delays, despite unverified crunch rumors and developer cutbacks; no further postponements signal stability. Traders eye music frontrunners like potential Rihanna or Playboi Carti albums, AI milestones such as GPT-6, alongside meme bets on Bitcoin $1M or improbable events, with Trailer 3 and pre-orders rumored imminently around May 18 as key watchpoints amid high-volume wagering.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· Diperbarui
Mar 20 2026
BTS releases new album 'ARIRANG' after nearly four-year hiatus
BTS released their new album 'ARIRANG' on March 20, 2026, marking their return after military service and increasing market confidence in new music releases before GTA VI.
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Mar 6 2026
Harry Styles announces new album 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally'
Harry Styles announced his new album to be released on March 6, 2026, generating anticipation in the music market and impacting the probabilities of new album releases before GTA VI.
Feb 26 2026
Pam Bondi resigns as Attorney General amid Justice Department upheaval
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
Pam Bondi, a Trump loyalist and Attorney General, resigned in February 2026 after controversies and internal Justice Department turmoil, impacting market views on Trumpβs political stability before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards, first Spanish-language album to do so
New Rihanna Album rises to 55%3%
Bad Bunnyβs album 'DebΓ Tirar MΓ‘s Fotos' won album of the year at the 2026 Grammys, marking a historic moment for Spanish-language music and boosting confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoinβs price decline below levels seen before Trumpβs second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 21 2026
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 54%4%
Meta named Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration adviser, as president and vice chairman in January 2026, signaling closer ties between Trump and major tech firms, influencing GPT-6 release market sentiment.
Jan 20 2026
Donald Trump sworn in for second term as U.S. President
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2026, increasing market attention on his political future and impacting the probability of him being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trumpβs Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondiβs departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
President Trump signs bill returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in January 2026, reversing a previous policy and reflecting his administration's influence on domestic policy, which may affect perceptions of his political future before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 5 2025
Donald Trump elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board, renaming it Trump-Kennedy Center
Trump out as President surges to 50%22%
In December 2025, Donald Trump was elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board and the center was renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, sparking controversy and artist cancellations, influencing market perceptions of Trump's political standing before GTA VI.
Dec 4 2025
Bitcoin price plunges below $67,000, erasing gains since Trumpβs second term
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoinβs price fell sharply in December 2025, dropping below pre-Trump second term levels, reflecting investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, which affected market confidence in Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI.
Nov 19 2025
DEA seizes 628,000 carfentanil pills in Los Angeles, highlighting drug crisis
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
The DEAβs large seizure of carfentanil pills in November 2025 underscored the ongoing opioid crisis, influencing political and social stability perceptions that may affect Trumpβs presidency market odds.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depotβs settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the marketβs view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan amid rising tensions
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%32%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills around Taiwan in November 2025, signaling increased military pressure and raising the perceived risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, angering China
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%33%
The Trump administration announced a massive arms sales package to Taiwan valued at over $10 billion, escalating tensions with China and increasing market expectations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBIβs report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoinβs price potential before GTA VI.
Nov 4 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9 million to compensate victims of bitcoin ATM scams
Bitcoin hits $1m surges to 49%32%
Bitcoin Depot settled with the state of Maine to pay nearly $2 million to compensate victims of fraud involving bitcoin ATMs, highlighting the risks in the cryptocurrency market and influencing Bitcoin hitting $1m market probabilities.
Jun 13 2025
BTS members complete mandatory military service, signaling group comeback
New Playboi Carti Album surges to 53%21%
All seven members of BTS completed their South Korean mandatory military service by June 2025, ending a nearly four-year hiatus and setting the stage for a group comeback. This boosted market confidence in a new BTS album release before GTA VI.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Drake merilis Iceman" di 100%, diikuti oleh "Gencatan Senjata Rusia-Ukraina" di 100%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" telah menghasilkan $21.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada May 2, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" adalah "Drake merilis Iceman" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Gencatan Senjata Rusia-Ukraina" di 100%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $21.9 million diperdagangkan pada "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta β sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 100Β’ untuk "Drake merilis Iceman" di pasar "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 100% bahwa "Drake merilis Iceman" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 100Β’ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham β keuntungan 0Β’ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar Jul 31, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 849 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Apa yang akan terjadi sebelum GTA VI?." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan