Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 87%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$6,225,803 Vol.
$6,225,803 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
87%
11%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.3%
xAI <1%
$6,225,803 Vol.
$6,225,803 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$489,426 Vol.
87%
$369,279 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$594,071 Vol.
2%
xAI
$436,713 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$344,182 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$448,647 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$427,316 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$322,071 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$403,392 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$427,264 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$461,547 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$395,105 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$388,958 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$311,562 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$406,615 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volume
$6,225,803Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,225,803Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Anthropic at 86.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating key benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (over 80% for the first time) and Arc-AGI-2 (37.6%), while offering superior token efficiency and lower costs than predecessors. This edges out OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (launched April 23), which trails in coding and agentic tasks per recent Artificial Analysis and Stanford HAI evaluations. Google's 10.5% reflects anticipation of Gemini advancements post-I/O, but Anthropic's four top-5 Arena models create a robust moat. Watch for last-minute releases, as thin leads can shift rapidly in this competitive large language model landscape.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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