Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market with a 63.5% implied probability, driven by the April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which has maintained top rankings on key benchmarks including SWE-bench, LM Arena Elo, and instruction-following evaluations through mid-May. This positions the company ahead in style control and agentic capabilities for large language models. Google holds 24% as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post strong results in reasoning and multimodal tasks, though recent leaderboard updates have narrowed its edge. OpenAI trails at 5% after GPT-5.5 updates failed to shift consensus, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid ongoing competition. Upcoming June previews from labs like DeepSeek could introduce volatility before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 63%
Google 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,460,794 Vol.
$1,460,794 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
63%
24%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 63%
Google 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,460,794 Vol.
$1,460,794 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$30,616 Vol.
63%
$18,768 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$49,364 Vol.
5%
xAI
$15,009 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,551 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,184 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,961 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,394 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,764 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$20,998 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,379 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,912 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,849 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,651 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market with a 63.5% implied probability, driven by the April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which has maintained top rankings on key benchmarks including SWE-bench, LM Arena Elo, and instruction-following evaluations through mid-May. This positions the company ahead in style control and agentic capabilities for large language models. Google holds 24% as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post strong results in reasoning and multimodal tasks, though recent leaderboard updates have narrowed its edge. OpenAI trails at 5% after GPT-5.5 updates failed to shift consensus, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid ongoing competition. Upcoming June previews from labs like DeepSeek could introduce volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,460,794Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market with a 63.5% implied probability, driven by the April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which has maintained top rankings on key benchmarks including SWE-bench, LM Arena Elo, and instruction-following evaluations through mid-May. This positions the company ahead in style control and agentic capabilities for large language models. Google holds 24% as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post strong results in reasoning and multimodal tasks, though recent leaderboard updates have narrowed its edge. OpenAI trails at 5% after GPT-5.5 updates failed to shift consensus, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid ongoing competition. Upcoming June previews from labs like DeepSeek could introduce volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,460,794Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market with a 63.5% implied probability, driven by the April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which has maintained top rankings on key benchmarks including SWE-bench, LM Arena Elo, and instruction-following evaluations through mid-May. This positions the company ahead in style control and agentic capabilities for large language models. Google holds 24% as Gemini 3.1 Pro continues to post strong results in reasoning and multimodal tasks, though recent leaderboard updates have narrowed its edge. OpenAI trails at 5% after GPT-5.5 updates failed to shift consensus, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid ongoing competition. Upcoming June previews from labs like DeepSeek could introduce volatility before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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